

EZEKIEL 25 17
The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness. For he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know I am the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon you.
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FSOC
CHICOM REPORT
Three Chinese CHICOM (CHICOM'S=CHINA
COMMUNISTS) institutions were among the world's top four banks at the end of
2007 at a time when the
market capitalisation
of Western banks was suffering from a global financial crisis, a study showed
Wednesday. The number one spot in the rankings, compiled by the
Boston Consulting Group,
was occupied by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with market
capitalisation of nearly 340 billion dollars (218 billion euros). In second
place was
China Construction Bank,
followed by HSBC of Britain, Bank of China, Bank of America and Citigroup of the
United States. The study found that banks in North America and
Western Europe
had suffered a loss of 695 billion dollars in market capitalisation at the end
of 2007 while their counterparts in emerging market countries Brazil, Russia,
China and India had seen their market capitalisation increase by 753 billion
dollars.
Major US and European
banks have suffered losses and asset writedowns stemming from the near collapse
of US subprime -- high risk -- mortgage sector, which undermined the value of
billions of dollars' worth of their mortgage-backed securities.
Worldwide protests over China's crackdown in Tibet are spreading, putting
pressure on Beijing's Communist leaders just months ahead of their showpiece
Olympic Games in August.Tibet's exiled leaders say about 100 people have been
killed in a crackdown on anti-Chinese protests and have called for an
international investigation. China has denied wrongdoing and blamed Tibetans for
the unrest. Growing numbers of people are taking to the streets worldwide to
protest against the crackdown, and rights groups have urged foreign governments
to respond by keeping their officials away from the Beijing Olympics.European
Parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering said Tuesday political leaders would
reconsider attending the opening ceremony if the "repression" continued."It will
cause political leaders who plan to attend the opening of the Olympic Games, as
I plan to, to consider whether such a trip is a responsible move," he said.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner suggested the European Union may
consider a boycott of the opening ceremony and in Rome, the Italian government
called on the European Union to send a mission to Beijing immediately to discuss
the crisis. But China's ambassador to the United Nations, Wang Guangya, said
there was little support for an EU boycott of the August 8 ceremony. "What he (Kouchner)
said is not shared by most people in the world," the Chinese envoy said. Chinese
authorities have responded to the unrest with a virtually total lockdown of
Tibet and other areas of China with large Tibetan populations. Activist groups
said Wednesday hundreds of people have been arrested across Tibet following the
deadly riots in the region. Further protests against Beijing's handling of the
crisis were planned Wednesday, including one outside the Chinese embassy in
Bangkok, after a series of demonstrations were held worldwide on
Tuesday.Hundreds of demonstrators, many holding banners and Tibetan flags,
gathered at the seat of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in the Swiss
city of Lausanne for a procession led by monks in traditional robes.Belgian
police used pepper spray to disperse a crowd of Tibetan protesters who hurled
projectiles at the Chinese mission to the European Union and in London, two
protesters hung a sign that read "Stop killing Tibetans" around the necks of the
terracotta warriors on loan from China to the British Museum.Meanwhile,
demonstrators in Australia burned Chinese flags and chanted "Free Tibet" as they
protested outside Beijing's consulate in Sydney.Also Tuesday, White House
hopeful Senator John McCain called on China to allow international access to
Tibet and open talks with the Himalayan territory's exiled spiritual leader, the
Dalai Lama. He said reports of Beijing shutting down the popular video website
YouTube and confiscating mobile phone SIM cards were "disturbing," adding,
"reports of multiple deaths are far more so, especially in a year when China is
preparing to host the Olympic Games." China refuses to hold negotiations with
the Dalai Lama, who said Tuesday he would resign as Tibet's spiritual leader if
the unrest in his homeland worsened.
Pro-Tibet activists said Wednesday they have been bombarded with abusive phone
calls and virus emails as they try to contact witnesses in Tibet and nearby amid
a clampdown following anti-Chinese riots. Matt Whitticase, from the Free Tibet
Campaign, said he had received calls every two minutes from 4:00 am to 7:00 am
Tuesday in London to his mobile number and also at his work number. "The content
was crude, abusive and highly anti-Tibetan in nature. The calls also contained
the sort of patriotic Chinese music you used to hear on Chinese trains and in
public places. "It seemed that the intention was to stop me from working and
from making calls," he said. Lhadon Tethong, director of Students for a Free
Tibet, told AFP that their New York office had also received abusive calls from
people speaking Chinese, and added that they had received viruses via email. "We
are getting virus attacks that are just shameless... claiming to be desperate
people inside Tibet. The emails are well-written and emotional pleading for us
to open the images," she told AFP. One other group, which did not want to be
identified, told AFP its computers had been compromised by virus attacks over
the last few days. China blanketed restive Tibetan areas Thursday with a huge
buildup of troops, turning small towns across a wide swath of western China into
armed encampments. Beijing acknowledged that last week's anti-government
protests had spread far beyond Tibet's borders and that police opened fire on
protesters. It warned foreign tourists and journalists to stay away from a huge
expanse of territory across four provinces. In an overture of peace, the Dalai
Lama offered to meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao and other leaders,
reiterating that he was not asking for Tibetan independence. China has
repeatedly ignored calls for dialogue, accusing the exiled Tibetan leader and
his supporters of organizing violence in hopes of sabotaging the upcoming
Beijing Olympics and promoting Tibetan independence. Hundreds of paramilitary
troops aboard at least 80 trucks were seen traveling along the main road winding
through the mountains into southeastern Tibet. Others set up camp and patrolled
streets in riot gear, helmets and rifles in the town of Tiger Leaping Gorge, a
tourist attraction in Yunnan province bordering Tibet. Farther north, the
largely Tibetan town of Zhongdian, renamed Shangri-la a decade ago, was swarmed
by 400 armed police. Many carried rifles and what appeared to be tear gas
launchers. Residents walked freely among the military, and there was no sign of
a daytime curfew. The troop mobilization was helping authorities reassert
control after the broadest, most sustained protests by Tibetans against Chinese
rule in decades. Demonstrations had flared across Tibetan areas of Sichuan,
Gansu and Qinghai provinces in support of protests that started in the Tibetan
capital of Lhasa. Led by Buddhist monks, protests had begun peacefully in Lhasa
early last week but erupted into rioting on March 14, drawing a harsh response
from Chinese authorities.
The crackdown drew worldwide attention to China's human rights record,
threatening to overshadow Beijing's attempts to project an image of unity and
prosperity in the lead-up to the Aug. 8-24 Olympics. On Thursday, a group of 26
Nobel laureates said they "deplore and condemn the Chinese government's violent
crackdown on Tibetan protesters," calling for Beijing to exercise restraint."We
protest the unwarranted campaign waged by the Chinese government against our
fellow Nobel Laureate, his holiness the Dalai Lama," the group said in a
statement released by the Elie Wiesel Foundation. Tibetan exile groups have said
80 people were killed in the protest and its aftermath, while Beijing maintains
that 16 died and more than 300 were injured. Tibetan television in Lhasa showed
video Thursday of black-clad police arresting 24 men. Handcuffed against a wall,
the men — some young, some old — were charged with "endangering national
security, beating, smashing, looting and burning." The two remaining foreign
journalists in Tibet — Georg Blume of Germany and Kristin Kupfer of Austria —
were forced to leave Lhasa on Thursday, according to Reporters Without Borders.
Earlier this week, Economist correspondent James Miles and a group of 15 Hong
Kong reporters were forced out. Speaking from the seat of his
government-in-exile in Dharmsala, India, the Dalai Lama offered to meet with Hu
and other Chinese leaders but said he would not travel to Beijing unless there
was a "real concrete development." "The whole world knows the Dalai Lama is not
seeking independence, one hundred times, thousand times I have repeated this. It
is my mantra — we are not seeking independence," the 72-year-old Dalai Lama told
reporters. "The Tibet problem must be solved between Tibetan people and Chinese
people," he said. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, expressed "grave
concern" over a planned meeting between British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and
the Dalai Lama, telling Brown not to offer support to the Tibetans' exiled
spiritual leader. China says the riots and protests were organized from abroad
by the Dalai Lama and his supporters.
Reinforcing that claim, state broadcaster China Central Television aired a
15-minute program Thursday night, showing how Tibetan rioters rampaged through
Lhasa last week but none of the ensuing police crackdown. Video from security
cameras showed burned shops, wounded Chinese and a knife-wielding Tibetan
standing atop a police car. Buddhist monks were shown throwing sticks and other
debris at riot police in a scuffle on March 10, in an attempt to portray the
protests as having been started by monks. But authorities have moved to clamp
down on unrest in Tibet and surrounding provinces, where more than half of
China's 5.4 million Tibetans live. Moving from town to town, police have set up
blockades and checkpoints to keep Tibetans in and reporters out. Foreign
Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said China is "suggesting" foreigners stay out of
Gansu and Sichuan provinces for safety reasons. But tour operators in the
provinces said foreigners were barred from traveling in those areas and tour
groups were banned from Tibet, isolating a region about four times the size of
France. An employee at the Nine Lakes Travel Agency in Lanzhou, Gansu province,
said she had heard about recent protests and unrest in many counties around the
province. "Tourists are not allowed to enter the seven counties affected because
it considered dangerous at the moment. It is not safe to travel here at this
time," she said, refusing to give her name for fear of reprisal. Despite the
massive security, protests have continued to crop up in towns in Qinghai,
Sichuan and Gansu provinces.
The official Xinhua News Agency said police shot and wounded four rioters "in
self-defense" during violent protests Sunday in Aba County in Sichuan. It is the
first time the government has acknowledged shooting any protesters during the
unrest. A Tibetan resident in Aba County said Thursday she had heard of numerous
arrests of protesters. "There are many, many troops outside. I'm afraid to leave
the house," said the woman, who refused to give her name for fear of retaliation
by authorities. Police could be heard shouting from loudspeakers for protesters
to turn themselves in. Troops blocked roads in nearby Sertar, also in Sichuan,
confining residents to their homes, said a woman reached there by phone. The
London-based Free Tibet Campaign reported that troops had been sent to the
county after residents blew up a bridge near the village of Gudu. A hotel worker
in central Luqu County, in neighboring Gansu province, said she had not left the
hotel in four days because she was afraid. "On the 16th, hundreds of Tibetan
protesters marched in the streets, throwing rocks and breaking windows. The
streets are now filled with police officers," she said, refusing to give her
name for fear of reprisal. "Our hotel is booked out with tourists, but no one
feels safe enough to set foot outside." Champa Phuntsok, the taciturn chairman
of Tibet's government, left no doubt Monday morning on whose shoulders the
Communist Party places blame for the violent Tibetan protests that have become a
domestic political crisis and an Olympic-year public relations nightmare: the
Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, and "splittist" forces colluding to
splinter China. Speaking at a hurriedly organized news conference, Phuntsok
described the violence that erupted Friday in Lhasa and is still spreading to
other Tibetan regions as if it were a meticulously orchestrated surprise attack.
But to many Tibetans and their sympathizers, the unleashed fury is sad and
shocking yet not a complete surprise. Tibetan anger has simmered over Chinese
policies on the environment, tightening religious restrictions and a harder
political line from Beijing. Ethnic tensions and economic anxiety have also
sharpened as Chinese migrants have poured into Lhasa, the capital of Tibet. "Why
did the unrest take off?" asked Liu Junning, a liberal political scientist in
Beijing. "I think it has something to do with the long-term policy failure of
the central authorities. They failed to earn the respect of the people there."
For now, Beijing's hard line on Tibet is only likely to get harder. Military
police officers are pouring into Tibetan regions to stifle new protests.
Nor are the demonstrations winning sympathy in a nation that is 94 percent Han
Chinese. State media have tightly controlled coverage to focus on Tibetans
burning Chinese businesses or attacking and killing Chinese merchants. No
mention is made of Tibetan grievances or reports that 80 or more Tibetans have
died. Chinese leader accuses Dalai Lama of being behind Tibet protestsTibetan
exiles in India join in protestsChina takes steps to thwart reporting on Tibet
protests Today in Asia - Pacific China's tough line in Tibet is seen to have
brought only resentmentChina takes steps to thwart reporting on Tibet
protestsPakistani Parliament opens with a power shift With less than five months
before the opening of the Olympics, Beijing is acutely worried about an
international backlash and is arguing that its response to the protests has been
reasonable. No one mentions the bloody 1989 crackdown against pro-democracy
protesters in Tiananmen Square, but its shadow is obvious. Phuntsok said the
military police and other officers were not carrying lethal weapons and had not
fired a single shot - despite many witnesses reporting gunshots. "What
democratic country in the world could tolerate this violent behavior?" Phuntsok
asked Monday, framing the crisis as a law-and-order issue.
Eventually, the protests will be extinguished and China's leaders will be left
with a shattered Tibet. One foreigner who witnessed the violence in Lhasa said
Tibetans were covering the streets in white toilet paper. Traditionally,
Tibetans offer white silk scarves to welcome guests. But the toilet paper was
intended to symbolize that the Chinese were no longer welcome - even though
there is no possibility they will leave. In recent years, China tried to soften
its image on Tibet by holding back-channel reconciliation talks with emissaries
of the Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama, in turn, has explicitly stated that he is
interested only in greater autonomy for Tibet within China, not independence.
But some analysts believe China's true goal was simply to keep talking and wait
for the Dalai Lama, 72, to die. The talks broke down last summer, and Beijing
infuriated many Tibetans by inserting itself into the metaphysics of Buddhism:
It announced that the Communist Party held the authority to approve incarnations
- the divine process by which a "living Buddha" is chosen in boyhood. Beijing
had already selected a boy as its own Panchen Lama, the second-ranking figure in
Tibetan Buddhism, and reportedly jailed a boy chosen by the Dalai Lama. Last
November, the Dalai Lama countered with his own surprise. He proposed altering
the ancient practice of choosing his own reincarnation. Usually, this would
happen after his death; senior religious figures would search out his
incarnation following proscribed guidelines. But the Dalai Lama has raised the
possibility that he can choose his own reincarnation - a possibility that has
enraged Beijing. Meanwhile, Beijing has steadily been taking a tougher line on
religious practices and cultural expressions of Tibetan pride. In November 2005,
Zhang Qingli was appointed Communist Party secretary of the Tibet Autonomous
Region. Zhang came from the Communist Youth League organization that forms the
political base of President Hu Jintao, and has made no attempt to disguise his
paternal attitude toward his charges. "The Communist Party is like the parent to
the Tibetan people, and it is always considerate about what the children need,"
Zhang said last year. He later added: "The Central Party Committee is the real
Buddha for Tibetans." Robert Barnett, a Tibet specialist at Columbia University
in New York, said Zhang had overseen a tough crackdown on many facets of Tibetan
life.
Tibetan government employees faced requirements to write denunciations of the
Dalai Lama. Zhang reintroduced a policy that forbade Tibetan students and
government workers to visit monasteries or participate in religious ceremonies.
By 2006, Zhang had revived an "anti-Dalai" campaign and intensified "patriotic
education" at Buddhist monasteries. Monks are now required to attend long
sessions listening to recitations of China's interpretation of Tibetan history
and to denounce the Dalai Lama. "The party must surely know these monks are not
going to change their minds" about the Dalai Lama, said Tsering Wangdu Shakya, a
Tibet specialist at the University of British Columbia. "So the whole point of
the meetings is to intimidate the monks." Last Monday, the anniversary of a
failed Tibetan uprising against Chinese rule, an estimated 400 monks left the
Drepung Monastery and marched toward Lhasa to protest the religious
restrictions. The police arrested 40 or 50 monks while the rest of the group
held the equivalent of a sit-down strike. Hours later, the episode ended, but it
helped spark other protests that ultimately led to the violence Friday. Shakya
said Beijing must be stunned by the Lhasa riots because Tibet, under Zhang's
firm hand, was thought to be pacified. In 2006, China opened the world's highest
railroad, which cost $4.1 billion and traverses the Tibetan plateau to connect
isolated Lhasa with the rest of the country. Beijing described the railroad as a
vital tool in developing the Tibetan economy, the poorest in China. But many
Tibetans regard the railroad as a threat. China has poured money into Tibet in
hopes that economic development would dilute Tibet's religious fervor and win
over a younger generation. For many Tibetan families, life has improved; trade
and tourism are also rising. But Beijing has also encouraged huge numbers of
Chinese migrants and traders whose presence has diluted the Tibetan majority.
"That is one of the biggest sources of resentment," Shakya said of the Chinese
migration.
He said Tibetans believe Chinese are given more opportunities for jobs and
Tibetan unemployment is high. Beijing surely noticed that the younger generation
it hoped to entice with its economic policies was rampaging on the streets of
Lhasa. Economic development has also raised fears of environmental exploitation.
The railroad is regarded as a critical spur for China to extract rich deposits
of copper, iron, lead and other minerals in Tibet. Faced with limited natural
resources, China has hailed Tibet's minerals as critical to national
development. Environmental pressures are already being felt in other Tibetan
regions. Last year, Tibetans in Ganzi in Sichuan Province held angry protests to
stop a mining company that was shearing off a mountain considered sacred by
Buddhists. That tension never dissipated. Eleven days ago, before the Lhasa
riots, about 100 monks and other Tibetans attacked Chinese cars and shops and
clashed with the police - an incident censored in the Chinese press. Today, the
obvious question is what sort of policy Beijing will pursue next. Demands from
overseas pro-Tibet groups for independence do not even get consideration.
Several analysts say Beijing cannot win the hearts of Tibetans if it continues
to demonize the Dalai Lama - but Beijing's rhetoric about a sinister "Dalai
clique" is only hardening. Shakya said restricting the flow of Chinese migrants
would be a major concession. But few analysts believe Beijing is in any mood to
make concessions. Chu Shulong, a political scientist at Tsinghua University,
said the leadership truly believes that a "Dalai clique" or other overseas
groups are coordinating to overthrow its authority. He said Beijing regards the
timing of the pro-Tibet independence marches in India - only days before the
Lhasa uprising - as proof. "The government's interpretation is that this is
organized activity from inside India," Chu said, referring to the India
headquarters of the Tibetan government-in-exile. He added that Beijing's leaders
were probably also mystified at any suggestion that their policies have been
unfair.
"They think they are doing something right, something good, because they give a
lot of financial aid to the Tibetan region," he said. The crackdown, while the
Dalai Lama decried what he called the "cultural genocide" taking place in his
homeland. Demonstrations widened to Tibetan communities in Sichuan, Qinghai and
Gansu provinces, forcing authorities to mobilize security forces across a broad
expanse of western China. In Qinghai province, riot police sent to prevent
protests set off tensions when they took up positions outside a monastery in
Tongren. Dozens of monks, defying a directive not to gather in groups, marched
to a hill where they set off fireworks and burned incense in what one monk said
was a protest, according to an Associated Press reporter at the scene. In a sign
that authorities were preparing for trouble, AP and other foreign journalists
were ordered out of the Tibetan parts of Gansu and Qinghai provinces by police
who told them it was for their "safety." Meanwhile, police in the Tibetan
capital, Lhasa, searched buildings as a Monday deadline loomed for people who
took part in a violent anti- Chinese uprising last week to surrender or face
severe punishment. Tibet's governor Champa Phuntsok said Monday that 16 people
died and dozens were wounded in the violence, which broke out in Lhasa on
Friday. He described 13 as "innocent civilians," and said another three people
died jumping out of buildings to avoid arrest. China's state media said earlier
that 10 civilians were killed. He also said security forces did not carry or use
weapons.
Speaking from India, the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibetans, called
for an international investigation into China's crackdown on demonstrators in
Lhasa, which his exiled government claims left 80 people dead. "Whether
intentionally or unintentionally, some kind of cultural genocide is taking
place," the Dalai Lama said, referring to an influx of Chinese migration into
Tibetan areas and restrictions on Buddhist practices—policies that have
generated deep resentment among Tibetans. Tensions also boiled over outside the
county seat of Aba in Sichuan province when armed police tried to stop Tibetan
monks from protesting, according to a witness who refused to give his name. The
witness said a policeman had been killed and three or four police vans had been
set on fire. Eight bodies were brought to a nearby monastery while others
reported that up to 30 protesters had been shot, according to activist groups
the Tibetan Center for Human Rights and Democracy and the London-based Free
Tibet Campaign. The claims could not be confirmed. Sunday's demonstrations
follow nearly a week of protests in Lhasa that escalated into violence Friday,
with Tibetans attacking Chinese and torching their shops, in the longest and
fiercest challenge to Chinese rule in nearly two decades. Complicating Beijing's
task, the spreading protests fall two weeks before China's celebrations for the
Beijing Olympics kick off with the start of the torch relay, which will pass
through Tibet. Though many were small in scale, the widening Tibetan protests
are forcing Beijing to pursue suppression while on the run, from town to town
and province to province across its vast western region. Sunday's lockdown in
Tongren required police imported from other towns, the locals said. The Chinese
government attempted to control what the public saw and heard about protests
that erupted Friday.
Access to YouTube.com, usually readily available in China, was blocked after
videos appeared on the site Saturday showing foreign news reports about the
Lhasa demonstrations, montages of photos, and scenes from Tibet-related protests
abroad. Television news reports by CNN and the BBC were periodically cut during
the day, and the screens went black during a live speech by the Dalai Lama
carried on the networks. China's communist government had hoped Beijing's
hosting of the Aug. 8-24 Olympics would boost its popularity at home as well as
its image abroad. Instead the event already has attracted the scrutiny of
China's human rights record. Thubten Samphel, a spokesman for the Dalai Lama's
government, said multiple people inside Tibet had counted at least 80 corpses
since the violence broke out Friday. He did not know how many of the bodies were
protesters. The figures could not be independently verified because China
restricts foreign media access to Tibet. In Lhasa, hundreds of armed police and
soldiers patrolled the streets on Sunday. Hong Kong Cable TV reported some 200
military vehicles, carrying 40 to 60 armed soldiers each, drove into the city
center. Footage showed the streets were mostly empty other than the security
forces. Messages on loudspeakers warned residents to "discern between enemies
and friends, maintain order" and "have a clear stand to oppose violence,
maintain stability." James Miles, a BBC correspondent in Lhasa, said troops
carrying automatic rifles were "letting off the occasional shot."
He said people were scared to come out of their homes for fear of being hit by a
bullet. Westerners who were told to leave Lhasa and arrived by plane in the city
of Chengdu said they heard gunshots and explosions throughout Saturday and
overnight. "The worst day was yesterday. It was completely chaotic. There was
running and screaming in the street," said Gerald Scott Flint, director of the
medical aid group Volunteer Medics Worldwide, who had been in Lhasa four days.
Flint said he could see fires burning six or more blocks away. Tashi Wangdi,
president of the Office of Tibet that represents the Dalai Lama in New York,
called the departure of tourists worrisome. "I think there will be total
blackout of information to the outside world," he said. "Our worry is they will
be more brutal and will use more force now." The unrest in Tibet began March 10
on the anniversary of a 1959 uprising against Chinese rule of the region. Tibet
was effectively independent for decades before communist troops entered in 1950.
The Tibetan communities living far outside what China calls modern Tibet are
parts of former provinces of past Tibetan kingdoms, and many inhabitants still
revere the Dalai Lama. "We want freedom. We want the Dalai Lama to come back to
this land," said a monk from Rongwo in Tongren. The monks display his pictures,
though they have been ordered to remove them. Inspired by the protests in Lhasa,
monks and Tibetans in the town of Xiahe in Gansu province staged two days of
protests, one peaceful in which they raised Tibetan national flags, the other in
which government offices were smashed and police tear-gassed the crowd of more
than 1,000. Authorities clamped a curfew on Xiahe overnight. Patrols of riot
police, in black uniforms, helmets and flak jackets, and armed police in green
uniforms carrying batons marched through the town Sunday in groups of 10 and 20.
Smaller protests were reported in two other nearby towns, witnesses said, in
both cases drawing truckloads of armed police.
This is another reason why the US
government shouldn't be spending borrowed money to finance extra-constitutional
spending. The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic
threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast
holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan
revaluation. Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given
interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use
its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter
pressure from the US Congress. Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced
through key think tanks and academies. Described as China's "nuclear option" in
the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US
currency is already breaking down through historic support levels. It would also
cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps
tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn
in a mix of US bonds. When the federal government is asked to do things the
Constitution doesn't tell it to do, and when more and more money flows through
it, and with that more and more power, it's hard to stop spending. And with that
comes borrowing. And with that comes slavery. The same thing could happen even
if spending were kept in the context of the Constitution, but once you escape
its limits, there is then no limit. The rich rule over the poor, and the
borrower is servant to the lender. - Proverbs 22:7 (NIV)
China's oil giant Sinopec Group has signed a US$70 billion oil and natural gas
agreement with Iran, which is China's biggest energy deal with the No. 2 OPEC
producer. Under a memorandum of understanding signed Thursday, Sinopec Group
will buy 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas over 30 years from Iran and
develop the giant Yadavaran field. Iran is also committed to export 150,000
barrels per day of crude oil to China for 25 years at market prices after
commissioning of the field. Iran's oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, who is on a
two-day visit to Beijing pursuing closer ties, said Iran is China's biggest oil
supplier and wants to be its long-term business partner. Official figures show
that China imported 226 million tons of oil in2003, about 13 percent of which
coming from Iran. Beijing expects to secure foreign energy supplies by the deals
for its economy, which has turned China into a major oil importer but suffers
severe power shortages.A former KGB officer said to be close to President
Vladimir Putin was selected at a shareholders meeting Monday to head Transneft,
the state-owned monopoly pipeline operator. Nikolai Tokarev had run state-owned
oil exporting firm Zarubezhneft since 2000, the year Putin became president. He
previously had served a brief stint at Transneft as vice president. Tokarev will
replace Semyon Vainshtok, who was picked to head the state-run corporation
overseeing construction of sports facilities and infrastructure in Sochi for the
2012 Winter Games.
The choice of a former KGB officer to run Transneft, which is 75 percent state
owned, comes ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia and
fits a Kremlin pattern of putting trusted people in key government and corporate
positions. "This is part of the configuration around the presidential
succession," said Vladimir Pribylovsky, a political analyst.Bulgaria and Russia
signed a deal Friday to build a natural gas pipeline that would undercut a rival
project backed by the U.S. and European Union and strengthen the Kremlin's
dominance over EU energy supplies.The agreement came after visiting Russian
President Vladimir Putin pushed hard to secure Bulgaria's crucial participation
in the projected South Stream pipeline, which would cross from Russia under the
Black Sea to Bulgaria and then branch off for delivery deeper in Europe. Putin
brushed off concerns about Russia's increasing influence, saying after the
signing ceremony that the pipeline agreement and other deals would "seriously
increase the energy security of the Balkans, Europe as a whole and, of course,
Bulgaria." The deal required last-minute negotiations, amid tough bargaining by
Bulgaria and wariness about Russia's clout. The Bulgarian Cabinet approved the
agreement at an extraordinary meeting only a few hours before it was
signed.Bulgaria's interests are fully protected, because the company which will
be set up to construct and run the pipeline on Bulgarian soil will be with 50
percent Bulgarian and 50 percent Russian ownership," Bulgarian Prime Minister
Sergei Stanishev said. Russia's state-controlled gas monopoly, OAO Gazprom, had
previously been offering a minority stake in the part of the pipeline that would
run through Bulgaria.
"Until yesterday, the Russian side insisted on holding a 51-percent stake,"
Stanishev said. He said Putin himself deserved most of the credit for the
progress in the late-night negotiations. But despite the concession, the
imminent deal was a victory for Putin and Russia, which is already Europe's
dominant gas and oil supplier and is seeking to increase its control over
westward routes for its energy supplies from the former Soviet Union. "It's very
important that the parties have shown their ability to compromise, and the draft
that has been was prepared reflects a balance of interests," Gazprom chairman
Dmitry Medvedev, who is likely to succeed Putin after the March 2 presidential
election, said after meeting with Stanishev. He said agreements on South Stream
"will work for decades and make it possible to ensure stable conditions for
future energy deliveries for Bulgaria, Russia and EU nations."
Gazprom has set up a parity joint venture with Italy's ENI SpA to develop a
feasibility study for the 900-kilometer (550-mile), $10 billion pipeline. The
project is a direct rival to the Nabucco pipeline, sponsored by the United
States and the European Union, which would also come through Bulgaria. Taking
advantage of the clashing pipeline offers, Bulgaria has bargained with the
Kremlin. On Thursday, Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov underlined his
nation's support for the EU's efforts to diversify energy supply routes -- and
for Nabucco -- in a speech at a ceremony marking the opening of a Russian
cultural festival in Bulgaria. After Parvanov had spoken, a clearly annoyed
Putin, standing next to him, said Bulgaria was free to chose its direction but
warned it to make sure it "works to its benefit." ENI CEO Paolo Scaroni played
down the rivalry between South Stream and Nabucco following meetings with
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, saying both would be needed because of growing
demand. But South Stream would undercut Nabucco and dash the European Union's
hopes of reducing its growing reliance on Russia, which now supplies up to 40
percent of Europe's gas and up to a third of the oil imports of some European
countries. South Stream would have an estimated annual capacity of 30 billion
cubic meters (1.15 trillion cubic feet), roughly equivalent to 60 percent of the
natural gas consumed annually in The Netherlands. The Kremlin's plans have upset
opposition parties and non-governmental organizations in Bulgaria, who fear the
former Soviet satellite's increasing dependence on Russian energy supplies and
criticize Moscow's human rights record. With Putin and Parvanov looking on,
officials also signed a $5.9 billion contract to build Bulgaria's second nuclear
plant near the northern town of Belene.
Also signed was an agreement for a joint company, also including Greece, to
build the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline, which will channel Russian oil
from the Black Sea to the Aegean, bypassing Turkey's busy Bosporus. As part of
its energy blitz, Russia has promised to extend South Stream into Serbia and
build a huge gas storage facility there -- moves that would turn the Balkan
nation into a major hub for Russian energy supplies to Europe. Miller said
Gazprom and Serbian officials were close to a final agreement on a deal that
would envisage a South Stream branch reaching Serbia, and would also foresee
Gazprom taking a controlling stake Serbia's state oil company NIS. Belgrade has
turned increasingly away from the West and toward Russia, which has supported
Serbia in the debate over independence for Serbia's Kosovo province.
With the official launch of the Chinese Investment Corp, China's new financial
juggernaut will be both a formidable opportunity and challenge for the west. The
Chinese Investment Corp. (CIC) has been officially launched, and with an initial
endowment of US$200 billion the new state-controlled company is tasked to invest
abroad China's huge foreign reserves. In the shopping bag there will be natural
resources from developing countries as well as foreign technologies, research
and development (R&D) establishments and brand names from developed economies.
For the west, China's new financial juggernaut will be a formidable opportunity,
and a formidable challenge. After various announcements, on 27 September, the
Chinese authorities officially unveiled the CIC. Under the direct supervision of
the State Council, the nation's cabinet, the CIC is mandated to invest abroad
the huge reserves accumulated by Beijing over the last years. China's forex
topped US$1.33 trillion at the end of June and are expected to reach US$1.5
trillion by the end of the year, the largest in the world. Lou Jiwei, a
deputy-secretary general of the State Council and former finance minister, will
be the director of the new company.
China's investment corporation has been under preparation for some time. At the
conclusion of the annual session of the National People's Congress in March, the
Chinese government announced that it would set up a State Foreign Exchange
Investment Company (SFEIC) aimed at improving the yield of the country's foreign
exchange reserves and generating the largest returns possible. In May, the new
company, while still in preparation, invested US$3 billion of its reserves in
non-voting shares of the Blackstone Group, the New York-based private equity
firm that recently went public. With the establishment of the CIC at the end of
September, the contours of China's investment strategy have become clearer. The
CIC strategy
The CIC is modeled on the Singapore investment company, Temasek Holdings.
Temasek is an investment firm incorporated in 1974 and headquartered in
Singapore. Its portfolio spans various industries including telecommunications
and media, financial services, real estate, transportation and logistics, energy
and resources, infrastructure, engineering and technology as well as bioscience
and healthcare. The Chinese sovereign wealth fund will also be a private equity
vehicle, operating on a flexible investment horizon with the option of taking
concentrated risks. Lou Jiwey, the CIC's director, declared that the new company
would "invest, manage and add value to the Chinese portfolio" as an owner of its
assets and investments. Beijing currently holds its reserves in US treasury
bonds and other safe but low-yielding, instruments. According to Chinese
sources, the CIC will likely be "equity-heavy." Analysts at Morgan Stanley also
expect the Chinese company to hold a substantial share of its assets in
equities, not sovereign bonds. "The company's principal purpose is to make
profits," Li Yang, director of the finance research institute at the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), told ISN Security Watch. The CIC has an
initial capital of US$ 200 billion, but presumably the amount will be increased
according to the investments that the company will support. In practice, the CIC
will issue RMB-denominated bonds and sell these bonds on the market to buy
foreign exchange funds from the central bank. It will then use the foreign
exchange funds for investment. In June, China's legislature approved a special
issuance of RMB 1.55 trillion (US$200 million) in treasury bonds for the new
investment company. The CIC will operate in both the domestic and global
markets. Internally, the investment channels of the new vehicle will include
another Chinese state-owned company founded in 2003, the Central Huijin
Investment Corp., which has been merged into the CIC as a wholly owned
subsidiary company. Central Huijin holds shares in China's four leading
commercial banks and in 2005 injected US$60 billion into three of them. While
Central Huijin will be one of the financial vehicles adopted as the central
bank's investment arm to improve the balance sheets of Chinese state-owned
banks, the CIC will be more of a strategic investment fund focused on industry
and private equity. Internationally, the CIC will be Beijing's investment arm in
a range of sectors and countries. Its initial endowment and future prospects
make it one of the biggest in the world.
According to a report by Chatham House published in September, the CIC soon will
be the number two in the world, behind the Adia, the sovereign wealth fund of
the United Arab Emirates, but ahead of both the Gic, the Singaporean fund, and
the Norwegian Government Pension Fund. The central question is therefore where
and in which sectors the CIC will invest its capital. According to sources,
China's international investment strategy will take two directions. One the one
hand, it will invest in natural resources in developing countries. On the other
hand, it will concentrate on the acquisition of foreign technologies, R&D
establishments and brand names in advanced economies. According to Li Rongrong,
director of the China State Asset Management Commission (the agency that
oversees government assets), the CIC may also help major state-owned companies
expand overseas.
Taking the world by investment
Since the mid-1990s, the search for natural resources has continued to gain
momentum as a result of China's high economic growth, with increasing emphasis
on oil and industrial raw materials. In its 2006 World Investment Report, the
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicated that
China's outward foreign direct investment had more than quintupled in the first
half of this decade, to reach US$11.3 billion in 2005. South-East Asia, Latin
America and Africa have become the prime targets. For instance, in 2002, the
China National Offshore Oil Corporation became the largest foreign oil producer
in Indonesia after its takeover (for US$585 million) of Repsol Indonesia. In
Africa, China's investment strategy has been directed mainly at sourcing natural
resources, including oil. Moreover, increasing numbers of Chinese companies have
recently established production bases to supply local markets with cheap
products highly compatible with local demand and purchasing power. As a result,
total trade between China and Africa nearly quadrupled in six years, from
US$10.8 billion in 2000 to nearly US$40 billion in 2006. China is today Africa's
biggest trading partner and the second most important investor. China's new
investment company will further boost these trends. At the same time, China will
invest more and more in developed countries, where its presence is often
welcomed for the jobs, cash and infrastructure that it brings. In Australia, for
example, China has become the biggest foreign investor in the mining sector. The
CIC will place more emphasis on the acqui¬sition of advanced technologies, R&D
establishments, managerial know-how, distribution networks and brand names.
China's investment strategy will likely take the form of profitable
participation in private equity funds as well as strategic participation in
foreign investment companies running businesses considered of importance for
China. While normally in the first case, the CIC would hold a minority stake or
give up voting rights for the entitlement of a higher return (as in the
Blackstone investment fund), in the event of acquisitions of strategic assets,
China's investment company would presumably detain the majority of shares or in
any case full control of the company. It is in this scenario that questions of
corporate governance, transparency and strategic considerations will be
unavoidable.
Eye on Europe: challenge and opportunity
While in the US protectionist tendencies may create difficulties for China
investing in key strategic sectors, Europe is emerging as the most attractive
place for China's technology-seeking shopping spree. China is eyeing Europe's
IT, aerospace and defense sectors as investment opportunities, both in terms of
profitable returns on its foreign reserves and in terms of acquisition of
advanced technologies needed for China's industrial (and military)
modernization. Chinese investments in European companies would be helped by the
fact that EU-China relations are characterized by the conspicuous absence of
issues that could provoke a confrontation between the two sides - such as the
Taiwan question. Unlike the US and Japan, Europeans look at China almost
exclusively in terms of business opportunities and not as a possible military
competitor. Some EU policy makers - such as the Italian minister for the
economy, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa - have openly invited the CIC to invest in
Europe. At the same time, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor
Angela Merkel have called for a European "golden share" to protect industrial
strategic assets from unwanted takeovers from sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). EU
Economy Commissioner Joaquin Almunia added that "the EU might restrict
investments by government funds unless they disclose more about what they invest
in and why." The CIC will thus be, on the one hand, a great opportunity for some
industrial sectors, as it will offer fresh money into tight markets after the
sub-prime mortgage crisis. On the other hand, the Chinese investment vehicle
could well succeed in gaining control of western assets and advanced technology
that could be turned into military might in a situation where there could be
future tensions in US-China relations, especially over Taiwan. In sum, for the
west, the new Chinese investment corporation will be a great economic
opportunity, but also a formidable strategic challenge to watch.
Extracting oil from sand is still a laborious, time-consuming task although improved technology has significantly lowered costs. From his perch behind the wheel of a heavy-hauler truck in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Lucas Crisby peers out over a seemingly limitless moonscape of black, sticky sand. Oil has been good to Crisby. With his US$62,000 (HK$483,600) annual salary, he has bought a US$338,000, four-bedroom house a few doors from where he grew up. That's a significant achievement for a 20-year-old without a college degree and only a few years of work experience.Now, with Chinese companies pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the vast northern Alberta oil sand deposits, Crisby and others at Fort McMurray - a former Hudson Bay trading post - believe the good days have just begun.
Crisby says he doesn't care who harvests the oil sands, as long as the paychecks keep rolling in.''It's a free market,'' said Crisby, who rocks out to country tunes while hauling 400-tonne truckloads of unprocessed sand for Syncrude, a giant Canadian oil producer.To power its factories and fleets of new cars, China has intensified its search for oil in Asia and Africa. But Beijing's expansion into the United States' back yard demonstrates the risks the Asian economic giant is taking to secure energy supplies.China's venture into Canada has triggered unease in Washington, where some fear it could threaten US energy security and set the stage for clashes.Under the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada ensured its role as the dominant supplier for the United States by guaranteeing it would send a portion of its energy south of the border.
Today, Canada provides 17 percent of US oil imports, 16 percent of its natural gas and nearly all its imported hydroelectric power.Karen Harbert, assistant secretary for policy and international affairs at the US Energy Department, said Washington didn't believe it should tell other countries where - or with whom - they could do business.``Is China's investment into Canada's energy sector good for the North American energy market? Ultimately, it will be up to the Canadians to figure out which way they want to go and what's in their best interest economically and security-wise,'' she said.In the past two months, China's three largest oil firms have struck major deals in Canada, including a 40 percent stake in a US$3.6 billion pipeline project.The promise of a big new player in Alberta's oil sands has intensified a boom in the province. Since 2002, Fort McMurray's population has expanded by 20 percent to 56,000, mostly young Canadian men seeking their fortunes.
Oil companies are beginning to import labor from as far away as Venezuela and China, which has sparked job-loss concerns among labor unions and indigenous leaders. But many Canadians, including Crisby, simply view China as another major player in an industry that has long been a global game.Although the Canadian government owns the vast majority of the country's energy resources, more than half of Alberta's oil deposits are being developed by US companies, including Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy. The French, Dutch and Japanese have also invested in the oil sands.Thanks in part to aggressive marketing by its political leaders, Canada has also been a big beneficiary of China's economic growth.
COMMUNIST China is now Canada's second-largest trading partner, and Chinese is the third-most widely spoken language in Canada, after English and French. More than a million people of Chinese descent have immigrated to Canada in the last century.The latest influx of Chinese funds into energy and mining has prompted the Canadian government to look more closely at the national-security effects of foreign investment.COMMUNIST Canada is closely watching the debate in Washington over competing bids for Unocal by Chevron and China's CNOOC, a majority of whose stock is held by government-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp. US critics say a Chinese buyout of the California company would put scarce energy resources in the hands of a potentially hostile government.
Wenran Jiang, a China expert at the University of Alberta, said a US rejection of the CNOOC bid would make Canadians more cautious about striking energy deals with the Chinese.Energy analysts say Canada must balance its desire for investments from China with the need to satisfy its best customer, the United States, which buys 80 percent of Canada's total exports. When Alberta Energy Minister Greg Melchin visited Capitol Hill recently, he was questioned repeatedly about China's new role in Canada.Melchin said he reassured US officials and others that Canada's oil sands were a ``sunrise industry'' with lots of room for development, and that the United States would remain his province's ``best customer, friend and neighbor.''But many Canadians also view the issue as a way of reminding their powerful neighbor not to take them for granted.
``Our message is it would be in the best interest of the US to pay attention to your largest and best opportunity for long-term energy supply,'' Melchin said. ``You shouldn't take for granted that it will automatically happen.''Oil-industry executives and analysts differ on what China's entry into the Canadian market will mean for the United States. Some say it will have little effect on the price Americans pay for Canadian energy because oil supplies can be acquired elsewhere.But Wilfred Gobert, vice president of Peters & Co, a Calgary investment firm, thinks greater competition for Canada's oil could push up prices, especially if the Chinese are willing to pay more to secure a stable supply.Analysts say an infusion of Chinese funds would speed up development of Canada's oil sands, allowing the extraction of more oil for the United States, as well as China.Although improved technology has significantly lowered costs, extracting the oil from sand is still a laborious, time-consuming task, requiring two tonnes of sand to produce a barrel of oil.
Critics say the process is one of the most environmentally destructive ways to squeeze oil from the earth, in part because it emits large amounts of greenhouse gases.To reach the oil, giant pits as deep as 250 feet are being carved out of the northern Alberta forests. The sticky sands are fed through a series of machines that crush and separate out bitumen, which is processed into crude oil.If Canada's output more than doubles by 2010, as projected, the oil sand producers will need new pipelines to get the crude to their customers. That's why China is a key factor in the competition between Calgary-based Enbridge and another Calgary firm, Terasen Pipelines, to develop a pipeline from northern Alberta to the coast of British Columbia in the west.Whichever company secures a Chinese commitment for long-term contracts will have the edge in financing its pipeline, said Steven Paget, a research analyst for FirstEnergy Capital, a Calgary-based investment bank.
But getting there won't be easy, said Richard Bird, group vice president of Enbridge. He said China's big energy firms aren't ``willing to buy long-term supply without more direct investment into the oil sands,'' meaning they want to help produce oil and share in profits.Canadian executives said Chinese firms were more willing than Western companies to invest ``patient capital'' in projects that might not reap immediate profits, to gain a foothold in promising markets.With the surge in oil prices, the biggest Canadian oil sand producers are being courted heavily and can afford to be choosy about their partners.Thomas d'Aquino, chief executive of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives, a group of Canada's leading firms, said he opposed any efforts to restrict China's participation in the North American energy market, as long as its acquisitions are legal and transparent.But he said Washington and Ottawa should think about what they would do if there was a global energy shortage and Beijing controlled a large share of Canada's oil.``What would it mean if China owns those resources and said, `No, we need them for us, we can't send them to you'?''
China says nine countries have offered it financial incentives to invest in oil and gas projects as it continues its global hunt for energy resources. Government officials said Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Morocco, Libya, Niger, Norway, Ecuador and Bolivia would offer China tax breaks and other sweeteners. China already has a similar arrangement with 20 other countries. China is increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas as it tries to sustain its rapid economic growth.
Beijing has agreed a host of energy deals with other countries in the past year, including Venezuela and Malaysia, and is currently negotiating with Iran over gas imports. China has been particular active in Africa, prompting criticism that it is exploiting the continent's resources for its own benefit and setting aside concerns about poverty reduction and human rights abuses. Chinese oil companies already have interests in Niger, while Libya is looking for external partners as it opens up its energy sector to foreign investment. China imported 47% of its oil supplies last year as its domestic supplies dwindled. New supplies are regarded as vital if the country is to continue its swift economic expansion. Separately, a government official said China would continue to rely on domestic coal production for most of its energy needs but was also looking to step up investment in renewable industries. Zhao Xiaoping, head of the National Development and Reform Commission's energy bureau, told Money China magazine its goal was to source 10% of energy from renewable sources by 2010. Beijing is under pressure to embrace more environmentally-friendly energy supplies to reduce pollution levels across the country and set a lead in the global fight against climate change.
One hacker says he is a former computer operator in the PLA another is a marketing graduate; and Xiao Chen says he is a self-taught programmer."First, you must know about the Web site you want to attack. You must know what program it is written with," says Xiao Chen. "There is a saying, 'Know about both yourself and the enemy, and you will be invincible.'"WE decided to withhold the address of these hackers' Web site, but Xiao Chen says it has been operating for more than three years, with 10,000 registered users. The site offers tools, articles, news and flash tutorials about hacking.Private computer experts in the United States from iDefense Security Intelligence, which provides cybersecurity advice to governments and Fortune 500 companies, say the group's site "appears to be an important site in the broader Chinese hacking community."Arranging a meeting with the hackers took weeks of on-again, off-again e-mail exchanges. When they finally agreed, SOMEONE was told to meet them on the island of Zhoushan, just south of Shanghai and a major port for China's navy.The apartment has cement floors and almost no furniture. What they do have are three of the latest computers. They are cautious when it comes to naming the Web sites they have hacked.
But eventually Xiao Chen claims two of his colleagues -- not the ones with him in the room -- have hacked into the Pentagon and downloaded information, although he wouldn't specify what was gleaned. "They would not publicize this," he says of someone who hacks the U.S. Defense Department. "It is very sensitive."This week, the Pentagon said ULTRA TOP SECRET PENTIGON COMPUTERS in the United States, Germany, Britain and France were hit last year by what they call "multiple intrusions," many of them originating from China.At a congressional hearing in Washington last week, administration officials testified that the government's cyber initiative has fallen far short of what is required. Most alarming, the officials said, there has never been a full damage assessment of federal agency networks."We are here today because we must do more," said Robert Jamison, a top official in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. "Defending the federal system in its current configuration is a significant challenge."U.S. officials have been cautious not to directly accuse the Chinese military or its government of hacking into its network.
But David Sedney, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, says, "The way these intrusions are conducted are certainly consistent with what you would need if you were going to actually carry out cyber warfare."Beijing hit back at that, denying such an allegation and calling on the United States to provide proof. "If they have any evidence, I hope they would provide it. Then, we can cooperate on this issue," Qin Gang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said during a regular press briefing this week.But Xiao Chen says after the alleged Pentagon attack, his colleagues were paid by the Chinese government. Again, CNN has no way to independently confirm if that is true.His allegations brought strenuous denials from Beijing. "I am telling you honestly, the Chinese government does not do such a thing," Qin said.But if Xiao Chen is telling the truth, it appears his colleagues launched a freelance attack -- not initiated by Beijing, but paid for after the fact. "These hacker groups in my opinion are not agents of the Chinese state," says James Mulvenon from the Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, which works with the U.S. intelligence community."They are sort of useful idiots for the Beijing regime."
He adds, "These young hackers are tolerated by the regime provided that they do not conduct attacks inside of China."One of the biggest problems experts say is trying to prove where a cyber attack originates from, and that they say allows hackers like Xiao Chen to operate in a virtual world of deniability.And across China, there could be thousands just like him, all trying to prove themselves against some of the most secure Web sites in the world.
"A geostrategic issue of crucial importance is posed by China's emergence as a major power. The most appealing outcome would be to co-opt a democratizing and flee-marketing China into a larger Asian regional framework of cooperation. But suppose China does not democratize but continues to grow in economic and military power? A "Greater China" may be emerging, whatever the desires and calculations of its neighbors, and any effort to prevent that from happening could entail an intensifying conflict with China. Such a conflict could strain American-Japanese relations -- for it is far from certain that Japan would want to follow America's lead in containing China -- and could therefore have potentially revolutionary consequences for Tokyo's definition of Japan's regional role, perhaps even resulting in the termination of the American presence in the Far East.
In 1997, Zbigneiw Brzezinski, wrote "The Grand Chessboard - American Primacy and it's Geostrategic Imperatives", which called for the American Dominance over Eurasia. As it is believed, "Those who control Eurasia control the Planet", and to accomplish this, the US would have to Prevent China from Acquiring Supremacy in Eurasia...... which means War......
In 1998, Two senior PLA Air Force colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, wrote "Unrestricted Warfare" in Direct response to The Grand Chessboard. Throughout this book, it is described how it would be feasible for Low Tech to Overcome High Tech, which could be used to Destroy America. .... and Unrestricted Warfare, goes as far as mentioning Bin laden and the World Trade Center in the same Sentence. After 9-11-01, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui were hailed as Hero's in China. On the Anniversary of 9-11, this book was given new cover art...... a Snapshot of 9-11(on a little side note, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji jokes publicly about the September 11 attacks)
I know that many of you are already thinking that "just because it's in a book, doesn't make it true"..... which is why I ask that you try reading them before dismissing this whole theory I'm about to type.... I also Tried to reference everything I could with Documents from the most Reliable Sources I could Find
It is Inevitable that the US and China would fight each other
Within these 2 books, is a basic format of how to acquire the goal of being the Hegemonic Country that carries the Planet through the 21st Century....... and it seems these books are being followed quite closely.The Grand Chessboard, states that the only way America would be able to be the Dominant Power in Eurasia, would require a "Pearl Harbor Styled Attack" to give the US Government the ability to change it's Foreign Policy towards Dominance...... which is Exactly what happened with George Bush's National Security Strategy for the United States it states that "as a matter of common sense and self-defense, America will act against such emerging threats before they are fully formed' and `to forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively"
and according to the CHINA SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION - REPORT TO CONGRESS OF THE U.S. - JULY 2002, in -Chapter 7 - Proliferation and Chinese Relations with Terrorist-Sponsoring States......... (China, is Considered a Threat)
....... The Axis of Evil......
Using September 11th, the United States began their conquest of the Middle East, starting with Afghanistan, Iraq, and soon to be Iran...... as these three countries are necessary for holding a Geostrategic Influence over the Middle East. (which, if you read the link to "the Grand Chessboard" you'll understand)
Each of these, Important to China..... will China let America threaten it's National Interests? Such as..... Iraq being the Biggest Supplier of Oil to China (refer to 1997 China-Iraq Oil deal)
In comes North Korea
N. Korea is a Chinese Wild Card...... a country that's nuclear capable, ICBM's that can potentially reach Chicago, and has a leader that's threatened to Nuke America. China uses N. Korea to Launch Nukes at America....or American Interests, like Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Guam...... Who would America retaliate against...... N. Korea or China?
Then there's the "List of 60+ other countries" that the President Bush considers as "Terrorist Harboring or Sponsoring States" (though the full list has never been disclosed)
but it would almost be safe to say that Within the "List of 60", America has created a Half Circle around China........ leaving the Russian Border Open...... Russia will be the deciding factor, and I believe whoever allows a blind eye to be turned to the expansion into some of their old Satellite Countries, will be who Russia sides with...... and as it stands, Russia is against this War in Iraq.... to the point, they were giving Iraq Military Equipment after America had already been in Iraq for Days. So, it's not looking good, if America wants Russia as an Ally, for a War against China....... read the Russia page if you want to know more..... now back to China
China, more then any other country since 9-11-01, has remained fairly silent in the World of Politics, they've just been sitting back watching what America does......even after the US has repeatedly tried "Provoking" China..... the EP-3 Spy Plane Incident, the Bombing of the Chinese Embassy, the "Spy Bugs" on President Zemin's Boeing..... and now PreEmptiveness against many of China's Economic Partners?
China's response to each incident?...... China disassembled the EP-3 Plane and shipped it back to America...... China, though did nothing through action, they refuse to believe any excuse we have to offer, for the Bombing of their Embassy....... and Silence upon the Bugged Plane incident (which almost prevented the Bush-Zemin meeting in February of 2002)......... China asked the United States to Halt the War against Iraq Immediately.
So far, China has shown that they are taking a Passive Route, but that could very easily change
.... and we think that their efforts will bear no fruit, if they attempt anything......
"Since the 7 May 1999 bombing of China’s embassy in Belgrade, China’s leaders reportedly have been discussing ways to offset US power, to include accelerating military modernization, pursing strategic cooperation with Russia, and increasing China’s proliferation activities abroad. However, none of these options is likely to improve fundamentally Beijing’s position." - China Report to Congress - Pursuant to the FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act
China's Offensive Move against the United States would be Taiwan and the N. Korean Wild Card, but Taiwan, would be a Last Resort, as "Unrestricted Warfare" offers a Variety of ways to Destroy America without a Serious Military Match Up, but does not leave that subject undiscussed. Which China has been Preparing for, within the past 5 years, according to their "Stated Budget Reports"
China is already a significant regional power and is likely to entertain wider aspirations, given its history as a major power and its view of the Chinese state as the global center.
The choices China makes are already beginning to affect the geopolitical distribution of power in Asia, while its economic momentum is bound to give it both greater physical power and increasing ambitions. The rise of a "Greater China" will not leave the Taiwan issue dormant, and that will inevitably impact on the American position in the Far East.
"The
exercise of American global primacy must be sensitive to the fact that political
geography remains a critical consideration in international affairs. Napoleon
reportedly once said that to know a nation's geography was to know its foreign
policy. Our understanding of the importance of political geography, however,
must adapt to the new realities of power.
For most of the history of international affairs, territorial control was the
focus of political conflict. Either national self-gratification over the
acquisition of larger territory or the sense of national deprivation over the
loss of "sacred" land has been the cause of most of the bloody wars fought since
the rise of nationalism. It is no exaggeration to say that the territorial
imperative has been the main impulse driving the aggressive behavior of
nation-states. Empires were also built through the careful seizure and retention
of vital geographic assets, such as Gibraltar or the Suez Canal or Singapore,
which served as key choke points or linchpins in a system of imperial control"
China, knowing that attacking Taiwan prematurely, will bring a repercussion of massive US Military Force, they will watch America for awhile.....
"The Blind Man and the Elephant"Bush Administration already pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan, in accordance to the Taiwan Relations Act
With the US Military Occupied in the Middle East, Trying to Protect Taiwan, and Dealing with the N. Korean Wild Card, China has a variety of options that open for them.
Try to use Diplomatic Processes to halt the US War...... Assist (Arms & Finances) those that the US is Attacking (Proxy Wars)....... Take Taiwan, and go to War with America.
Through the Diplomatic Process, China could use a Call for Peace, as a way to unite the world to pressure the United States to Stop their Conquest, which could have extremely positive effects for China, if they play their cards right.
Assisting those that the US are Fighting, could allow China to increase their Military Industrial Complex on an Exponential Factor, which would obviously hinder the US War Plans and create a US vs China style Vietnam, that many are expecting this war to eventually come to........
While, "Unrestricted Warfare" Supports the creation of a Vietnam Styled Conflict, it is questionable if it would be the best route to take, unless China is wanting a Mass Population Reduction.....which, could be very possible, as they have a population of 1.4 Billion people..... and we already know America's up for Population Reduction...... (or at least some in Congress want "H. CON. RES. 70" passed)
Which brings us to the Option of actually Confronting the US War machine, via Taiwan..... which in all essence would be World War Three.
Now, as I stated earlier, Russia is going to be the deciding Factor in who is the winner for the position of "the Lone Hyper-Power"..... yea, there's some who claim the US is a Lone Super Power, but it is impossible to claim that 1/5th of the World's Population is Not a Super Power. The Difference between a Super Power and a Hyper Power, is the Super Power has a relatively close Rival to some aspect of the Sphere of Influence of a Nation, be it Military, Economic, Social, or Political....... the Hyper Power has no Rival.
George Bush's National Security Strategy, calls for the US to have No Rivals
Since the Rise of Communism in the bitterness of the Cold War, one of America's Greatest Fear was a Russian-Chinese total peace agreement, and them attacking America...... after the Fall of Soviet Russia, this fear has been close to forgotten, yet is closer then it has ever been. (High-Level Political/Military Visits Between Beijing and Moscow Strengthen "Strategic Alliance" Against U.S./NATO ----- United States Security Strategy for Europe and NATO)
With the US on the path of Conquest, it is Imperative in the National Security interests of China and Russia to have the Presence of the US removed from their Sphere of Influence ....... the question is, as I asked earlier.... what Path to take.
Any Option that is Chosen, means an inevitable end to the US quest for the Status of Hyper Power.
........ The Peace Process.......
If the Diplomatic process is used, this could grant the UN the ability to become effective in their Role as "Peace Keepers" and Strengthen their ability to uphold their Resolutions and position as International Body of Law...... which could in all essence, be the creation of a World Governing Body.
There are many who claim that the UN has shown their Irrelevance and Inefficiencies, which will lead to their demise within the next 10 years, but this could easily not be the case...... This is just the belief that the UN is no longer Relevant to the USA, towards their quest towards Hyper Power Status.
If this were to happen, it would be very possible that the US could lose their position on the Security Council, which I see the US attempting to pull out of the UN if the UN tries to stop it's Quest........ This would obviously cause some havoc in the UN which could destroy the UN, but China, Russia, and the EU could easily make up for the loss of the US and it's Obligations towards the UN.
For the US to block the UN Peace Process and continue the Road to Hyper Power, would require the destruction of the UN, but in a show of Good Faith, the US will wait till the UN acts against them.
Back to the Peace process......
There's close to 200 Countries on this Planet, and in the "Coalition of the Willing" (there has never been a straight and definite number given) is made up of somewhere between 30-45 Countries, which leaves 140+ that don't seem to be "Willing" to assist America's War ( I use 140, since some countries are probably helping the US behind the scenes)
So, these 140 countries that are left, Pressure the US to stop their War and Quest for Hyper Power Status, the US can not survive in it's current state, if it's cut off from the world......... and the US falls like the Soviet Union... but the National Security Strategy will not allow for that...... for us, it's either World Domination or Total Destruction......"We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail" - George Bush Jr.
Already, a few countries have started boycotting American Goods..... Germany, Russia, France...... what if this were to catch on?....... What would happen if the US was cut off from the rest of the world, outside of Pax Americana?
...... The American-Chinese "Vietnam".........
With the Peace Process, seemingly Failed, every possible scenario I could think of, Leads me to wonder what China would do, if they didn't want to Fight the US at first, but instead let them wear out their resources, fatigue their military, and strain their nation (with assistance from potential world wide sanctions from an attempted peace process)
This could cause the Chinese Military Industrial Complex a chance to catch up to the US technologically, as they could just sit back and support guerillas in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, N. Korea ........ which of course, is going to increase their Economy and their "Middle Eastern" Sphere of Influence
If this were to happen, "Terrorism" would increase a thousand fold, throughout the Middle East and the Coalition Countries, pulling the Coalition Countries into a long drawn out War.
During the drawn out war, inevitably the Arabic World would unite, as they will see the Coalition as Occupiers and not Liberators
This war, if it were to happen, it would most likely follow the Unrestricted Warfare's Words, as it has already done before.
CHICOM BACKGROUND INFORMATION
300 short range missiles face Taiwan
China controls the Panama Canal
Secretary Rumsfeld Outlines Space Initiatives
Annual Report to the President and the Congress, from the Dept. of Defense
The United States Security Strategy for the East Asia - Pacific Region 1998
East Asia Strategy Report 1995
United States Security Strategy for Europe and NATO
A geostrategy for Eurasia by Zbigniew Brzezinski
CHINA - A Country Study (Library of Congress)
King Khan - Alternate Futures for 2025
Defense Issues: Volume 10, Number 109-- U.S. Strategy: Engage China, Not Contain It